LARRams
6-6
31
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
57°F
5 mph
37
BALRavens
9-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
57°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
17
0
9
29
Ravens
7
10
3
11
31
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
410
451
Total Plays
74
72
Yards / Play
5.5
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.17
Passing Yards
282
312
Comp/Att
23/42(55%)
24/44(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.29
Rushing Yards
128
139
Rush Attempts
30
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
14
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.49
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-6
Sack EPA
-3.33
-1.85
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
--
79
Penalty EPA
--
-13.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+206
Home nfelo
1,639
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+98.7
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
+24.4
Net QB Adjustment
-1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
1
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
12
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
12
EPA
EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
7
2
EPA / Rush
8
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
18
10
Fumbles / Game
3
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
1
RZ Efficiency
8
2
Ravens Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
6
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
9
19
EPA / Rush
4
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
30
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
2
24
RZ Efficiency
7
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U