LARRams
4-6
21
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
049
NOSaints
4-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
14
0
0
21
Saints
7
21
14
7
49
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
247
555
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
4.8
7.8
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.26
Passing Yards
178
346
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
29/37(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
9.4
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.37
Rushing Yards
69
209
Rush Attempts
17
32
Yards / Rush
4.1
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
27
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
20%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.16
-6.45
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-36
-14
Sack EPA
-9.83
-7.51
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
62
45
Penalty EPA
-1.71
-5.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+158
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+97.5
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+20.4
Net QB Adjustment
-2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+20.9
Away QB Adjustment
+23.7
Market Regression
+41.9
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
Value
Ptile
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
31
Yards / Game
32
26
Passing Yards / Game
23
28
Rushing Yards / Game
31
14
EPA
EPA / Play
32
28
EPA / Pass
32
27
EPA / Rush
31
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
30
28
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
1
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
10
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
1
9
Passing Yards / Game
1
13
Rushing Yards / Game
15
16
EPA
EPA / Play
7
17
EPA / Pass
6
18
EPA / Rush
7
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
2
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
13
20
Turnover EPA / Game
6
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U