LARRams
5-6
21
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
014
NOSaints
4-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
7
14
21
Saints
3
3
0
8
14
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
329
Total Plays
55
69
Yards / Play
5.9
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.03
Passing Yards
166
--
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.04
Rushing Yards
156
143
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-4.21
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
30
38
Penalty EPA
-4.45
-3.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model50.7%
Spread Pick
Saints+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.9
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
+10.2
Final Difference
-4.9
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
18
Yards / Game
14
30
Passing Yards / Game
31
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
30
EPA
EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
12
9
EPA / Rush
27
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
7
12
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
28
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
21
4th Down Efficiency
7
10
RZ Efficiency
25
14
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
15
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28
EPA
EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
25
13
EPA / Rush
10
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
23
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
4
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U