nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ saints week 13, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAR logo
LARRams
5-6
21
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
14
NOSaints
4-7
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
7
14
21
Saints
3
3
0
8
14

Spread

LAR logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
322
329
Total Plays
55
69
Yards / Play
5.9
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.03
Passing Yards
166
--
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.04
Rushing Yards
156
143
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-4.21
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
30
38
Penalty EPA
-4.45
-3.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model50.7%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+51.9
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.0
Home QB Adjustment
+25.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
+10.2
Final Difference
-4.6
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
09/15
-5.6
13
09/22
-1.3
39
09/29
-3.5
25
10/06
-2.1
33
10/20
-6.2
11
10/24
6.8
88
11/03
1.6
61
11/11
-2.6
31
11/17
8.4
94
11/24
0.3
51
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+25.7
Value
Ptile
12/31
1.8
62
01/07
6.7
89
09/08
5.6
82
09/15
3.7
74
09/22
-5.2
15
09/29
-0.7
44
10/07
-1.2
40
11/03
-0.6
44
11/10
3.8
74
11/17
5.9
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Rams logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
19
18
Yards / Game
14
30
Passing Yards / Game
31
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
30

EPA

EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
12
9
EPA / Rush
27
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
7
12
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
28
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
21
4th Down Efficiency
7
10
RZ Efficiency
25
14
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Saints logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
24
15
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28

EPA

EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
25
13
EPA / Rush
10
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
23
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
4
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
12
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-31
L
L
O
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-6
L
L
O
10/06
-5
L
L
U
10/20
5
W
L
U
10/24
10
W
W
O
11/03
6
W
W
U
11/11
-8
L
L
U
11/17
6
W
W
O
11/24
-17
L
L
O
NO logo

Saints

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
25
W
W
O
09/22
-3
L
L
U
09/29
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-13
L
L
U
10/13
-24
L
L
O
10/17
-23
L
L
O
10/27
-18
L
L
U
11/03
-1
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/17
21
W
W
O