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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ seahawks week 5, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
4-0
33
TBD
Lumen Field
53°F
5 mph
31
SEASeahawks
2-2
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
53°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
10
7
9
33
Seahawks
7
10
14
0
31

Spread

SEA logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
468
373
Total Plays
63
55
Yards / Play
7.4
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.24
Passing Yards
313
183
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
13/21(62%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.39
Rushing Yards
155
190
Rush Attempts
30
32
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
30
20
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
33%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.46
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-15
Sack EPA
-1.10
-3.44
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
45
50
Penalty EPA
-5.28
-8.69

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-188
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,679
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-50.0
Home QB Adjustment
-9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+40.2
Market Regression
-15.4
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+40.2
Value
Ptile
11/26
0.9
59
12/03
1.0
60
12/10
0.9
59
12/17
-2.9
32
12/24
5.6
87
01/06
-2.9
33
09/10
0.3
49
09/16
3.0
70
09/23
9.7
95
09/27
16.2
99
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
Value
Ptile
11/26
3.3
76
12/03
5.7
87
12/10
2.4
69
12/17
-7.3
11
12/24
-3.0
32
12/31
2.5
70
09/09
-3.9
23
09/17
-4.3
21
09/23
-0.5
43
09/30
-0.9
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
3
19
Passing Yards / Game
9
24
Rushing Yards / Game
3
18

EPA

EPA / Play
3
19
EPA / Pass
5
11
EPA / Rush
3
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
8
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
5
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
18
20
Passing Yards / Game
19
15
Rushing Yards / Game
1
17

EPA

EPA / Play
6
17
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
5
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
21
RZ Efficiency
6
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
16
W
W
O
12/10
-8
L
L
O
12/17
35
W
W
O
12/24
4
W
L
O
12/31
-21
L
L
O
01/06
-13
L
L
U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/16
34
W
W
U
09/23
12
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
L
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
11
W
W
U
12/03
14
W
W
U
12/10
-6
L
L
O
12/17
-35
L
L
O
12/24
9
W
W
U
12/31
-2
L
L
O
09/09
-3
L
P
O
09/17
-7
L
L
U
09/23
11
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
L
U