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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ seahawks week 14, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
2-10
13
TBD
Lumen Field
40°F
7 mph
30
SEASeahawks
5-7
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
40°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
3
7
13
Seahawks
4
0
10
10
24

Spread

SEA logo
-8.5

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
281
359
Total Plays
63
68
Yards / Play
4.5
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.12
Passing Yards
167
214
Comp/Att
12/29(41%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.22
Rushing Yards
114
145
Rush Attempts
31
32
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
21%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.91
-4.16
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-26
-10
Sack EPA
-4.96
-1.42
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
30
61
Penalty EPA
-5.34
-7.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,354
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.6
Market Regression
+2.1
Final Difference
204.6
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.6
Value
Ptile
01/02
-8.3
6
09/11
-6.4
12
09/19
0.7
57
09/25
-6.1
13
10/02
-9.7
2
10/16
-0.4
49
11/06
-4.2
24
11/13
-2.2
35
11/20
-8.9
3
11/27
-1.3
43
T. Jackson headshot

T. Jackson

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
09/11
-4.4
22
09/18
-4.0
25
09/25
-3.9
26
10/02
5.5
84
10/09
-3.8
27
11/06
-6.7
11
11/13
1.0
60
11/20
-7.5
8
11/27
-4.7
21
12/01
-0.3
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
21
12
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15

EPA

EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
32
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
4
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
13
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
31
12
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
23
25
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
14
Rushing Yards / Game
20
31

EPA

EPA / Play
25
16
EPA / Pass
20
20
EPA / Rush
27
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
1
Interceptions / Game
13
23
Fumbles / Game
17
29
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
21
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-30
L
L
O
10/02
-7
L
L
U
10/16
-21
L
L
U
10/23
-27
L
L
U
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
-6
L
L
U
11/13
1
W
W
U
11/20
-17
L
L
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/04
-26
L
L
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/02
-2
L
W
O
10/09
11
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
P
U
10/30
-22
L
L
O
11/06
-10
L
W
U
11/13
5
W
W
O
11/20
17
W
W
U
11/27
-6
L
L
O
12/01
17
W
W
O