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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ seahawks week 17, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAR logo
LARRams
6-9
6
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
5 mph
20
SEASeahawks
11-4
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
3
0
0
6
Seahawks
0
0
6
8
14

Spread

SEA logo
-11.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
245
354
Total Plays
60
62
Yards / Play
4.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.41
-0.18
Passing Yards
203
222
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.48
-0.35
Rushing Yards
42
132
Rush Attempts
19
34
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
15
16
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-19.02
-8.33
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-40
-17
Sack EPA
-5.74
-5.30
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market82.6%
Model80.8%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+11.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.3%
Cover Probability
54.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,680
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.8
Home QB Adjustment
+21.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.4
Market Regression
-17.2
Final Difference
250.1
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Value
Ptile
11/25
-2.1
35
12/26
2.3
64
01/02
3.2
70
09/07
-7.7
9
11/16
-0.8
45
11/23
-6.4
13
11/30
1.4
60
12/07
-1.8
37
12/11
-4.8
21
12/21
3.3
73
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Value
Ptile
10/19
11.6
98
10/26
-0.6
46
11/02
-4.3
24
11/09
1.1
57
11/16
4.9
82
11/23
0.6
53
11/27
1.5
61
12/07
6.6
87
12/14
-6.2
14
12/21
14.3
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
27
1
Passing Yards / Game
25
6
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4

EPA

EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
29
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
19
13
Fumbles / Game
22
15
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
22
22
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
9
16
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
9
Rushing Yards / Game
1
14

EPA

EPA / Play
8
6
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
1
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
8
Interceptions / Game
5
19
Fumbles / Game
9
10
Turnover EPA / Game
31
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
29
1
RZ Efficiency
19
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
2
W
W
O
10/26
-27
L
L
U
11/02
3
W
W
U
11/09
-17
L
L
O
11/16
15
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
11/30
52
W
W
O
12/07
24
W
W
U
12/11
-6
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
L
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-2
L
L
O
10/26
4
W
L
U
11/02
6
W
L
O
11/09
21
W
W
O
11/16
-4
L
L
O
11/23
16
W
W
U
11/27
16
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U
12/14
10
W
P
U
12/21
29
W
W
O