LARRams
5-11
16
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
4 mph
19
SEASeahawks
8-8
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
3
10
3
0
0
16
Seahawks
6
0
7
3
3
19
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
269
402
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.09
Passing Yards
123
205
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.44
-0.24
Rushing Yards
146
197
Rush Attempts
28
36
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.85
-10.45
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-24
-8
Sack EPA
-8.46
-2.50
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
35
20
Penalty EPA
-6.22
-3.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+64.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
-59.9
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-59.9
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
32
28
Passing Yards / Game
26
23
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30
EPA
EPA / Play
27
29
EPA / Pass
27
25
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
9
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
3
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
8
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13
EPA
EPA / Play
10
19
EPA / Pass
15
26
EPA / Rush
16
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
12
7
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
31
RZ Efficiency
27
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U