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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ steelers week 10, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
5-3
12
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
55°F
12 mph
17
PITSteelers
4-4
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
55°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
1
0
3
0
4
Steelers
7
1
0
3
11

Spread

PIT logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
306
273
Total Plays
69
68
Yards / Play
4.4
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.45
-0.37
Passing Yards
218
231
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.51
-0.10
Rushing Yards
88
42
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.80
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
16
15
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
7%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-17.51
-11.28
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-25
-11
Sack EPA
-12.05
-4.57
Penalties
10
13
Penalty Yards
95
107
Penalty EPA
-9.07
-9.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-132
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
-6.9
Base HFA
+50.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-39.4
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-18.1
Net QB Adjustment
-100.8
Home QB Adjustment
-95.8
Away QB Adjustment
+5.0
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Value
Ptile
01/20
0.9
52
02/03
-8.1
8
09/08
-4.2
25
09/15
1.4
64
09/22
-1.2
45
09/29
3.8
77
10/03
3.0
72
10/13
-8.8
7
10/20
3.1
72
10/27
3.6
76
B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-95.8
Value
Ptile
09/22
-3.5
28
09/30
4.5
81
10/06
-2.1
37
10/28
-3.4
28
11/03
-1.0
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Steelers Defense
Rams logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14

EPA

EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
12
4
EPA / Rush
28
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
25
2
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
8
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
6
3
Steelers Offense vs Rams Defense
Steelers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
27
17
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
30
19
Rushing Yards / Game
29
18

EPA

EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
30
12
EPA / Rush
32
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
32
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
22
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
17
4th Down Efficiency
32
25
RZ Efficiency
32
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/20
3
W
W
U
02/03
-10
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/29
-15
L
L
O
10/03
-1
L
W
O
10/13
-13
L
L
U
10/20
27
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-3
L
W
O
12/30
3
W
L
U
09/08
-30
L
L
U
09/15
-2
L
L
O
09/22
-4
L
W
U
09/30
24
W
W
U
10/06
-3
L
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
U
10/28
13
W
L
U
11/03
2
W
W
O