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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ titans week 16, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
10-4
27
TBD
Nissan Stadium
39°F
11 mph
23
TENTitans
8-6
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
39°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
6
7
7
7
27
Titans
3
4
7
3
17

Spread

TEN logo
+6

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
402
366
Total Plays
66
66
Yards / Play
6.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.11
Passing Yards
286
269
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.07
Rushing Yards
116
97
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
43%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.97
-3.76
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-15
-6
Sack EPA
-1.92
-1.43
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
44
54
Penalty EPA
-4.56
-4.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model64.8%
Spread Pick
TEN logo
Titans+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-63
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+76.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.3
Net QB Adjustment
-32.1
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+28.3
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
-106.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.3
Value
Ptile
10/08
-5.2
19
10/15
-3.4
28
10/22
1.5
63
11/05
8.0
94
11/12
5.3
85
11/19
-1.0
45
11/26
0.9
59
12/03
1.0
60
12/10
0.9
59
12/17
-2.9
32
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
10/01
-0.2
50
10/16
1.6
65
10/22
-3.1
31
11/05
-0.1
51
11/12
-0.6
47
11/16
-5.3
18
11/26
-3.0
31
12/03
0.8
58
12/10
-9.5
4
12/17
3.6
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Titans Defense
Rams logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
8
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4

EPA

EPA / Play
6
23
EPA / Pass
8
23
EPA / Rush
7
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
13
Interceptions / Game
1
23
Fumbles / Game
30
17
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
18
4th Down Efficiency
22
26
RZ Efficiency
15
17
Titans Offense vs Rams Defense
Titans logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
21
17
Passing Yards / Game
23
11
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27

EPA

EPA / Play
18
7
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
10
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
16
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-6
L
L
U
10/15
10
W
W
O
10/22
33
W
W
U
11/05
34
W
W
O
11/12
26
W
W
U
11/19
-17
L
L
U
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
16
W
W
O
12/10
-8
L
L
O
12/17
35
W
W
O
TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-6
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
O
10/22
3
W
L
U
11/05
3
W
P
O
11/12
4
W
L
O
11/16
-23
L
L
O
11/26
4
W
W
U
12/03
11
W
W
U
12/10
-5
L
L
U
12/17
-2
L
W
O