LARRams
4-3
18
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
51°F
14 mph
21
MINVikings
5-2
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
51°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
6
9
0
3
0
18
Vikings
10
0
8
0
3
21
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
295
Total Plays
71
64
Yards / Play
4.5
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.07
Passing Yards
160
148
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.32
Rushing Yards
160
147
Rush Attempts
37
36
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
5
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
13%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.91
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-11
Sack EPA
-1.28
-1.05
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
87
67
Penalty EPA
-11.47
-6.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
Vikings-1.5
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+61.8
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-8.8
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
35.5
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
32
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
17
EPA
EPA / Play
32
12
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
24
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
6
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
21
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
21
5
Vikings Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
29
23
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
21
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
24
10
EPA / Rush
4
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
32
Interceptions / Game
4
17
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
25
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U