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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ vikings week 9, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
4-3
18
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
51°F
14 mph
21
MINVikings
5-2
MIN logo
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
51°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
6
9
0
3
0
18
Vikings
10
0
8
0
3
21

Spread

MIN logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
320
295
Total Plays
71
64
Yards / Play
4.5
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.07
Passing Yards
160
148
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.32
Rushing Yards
160
147
Rush Attempts
37
36
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
5
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
13%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.91
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-11
Sack EPA
-1.28
-1.05
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
87
67
Penalty EPA
-11.47
-6.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings-1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+62.3
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-8.8
Market Regression
-6.9
Final Difference
35.7
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
Value
Ptile
10/12
-0.2
48
10/26
4.3
79
11/02
-5.0
19
09/13
5.3
83
09/20
-3.6
24
09/27
-4.3
19
10/04
2.6
69
10/11
-14.0
0
10/25
-3.9
22
11/01
-0.7
46
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
12/14
1.5
61
12/21
-0.1
49
12/28
-3.5
28
09/14
-3.8
22
09/20
2.6
70
09/27
-6.3
10
10/04
-1.4
41
10/18
-5.8
12
10/25
1.9
64
11/01
-2.6
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Vikings Defense
Rams logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
32
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
17

EPA

EPA / Play
32
12
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
24
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
6
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
21
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
21
5
Vikings Offense vs Rams Defense
Vikings logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
29
23
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
21

EPA

EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
24
10
EPA / Rush
4
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
32
Interceptions / Game
4
17
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
25
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-6
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
L
O
12/28
-14
L
L
U
09/13
3
W
W
O
09/20
-14
L
L
U
09/27
-6
L
L
U
10/04
2
W
W
O
10/11
-14
L
L
U
10/25
18
W
W
U
11/01
21
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-2
L
W
U
12/21
-2
L
W
O
12/28
4
W
L
U
09/14
-17
L
L
U
09/20
10
W
W
U
09/27
17
W
W
U
10/04
-3
L
W
U
10/18
6
W
W
U
10/25
9
W
W
O
11/01
3
W
W
U