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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ bears week 11, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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BAL logo
BALRavens
6-3
16
TBD
Soldier Field
46°F
9 mph
13
CHIBears
3-6
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
46°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
6
0
10
16
Bears
0
0
7
6
13

Spread

CHI logo
+5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
299
353
Total Plays
76
58
Yards / Play
3.9
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.13
Passing Yards
176
261
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
15/35(43%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.03
Rushing Yards
123
92
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
44%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.17
-4.80
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-43
-19
Sack EPA
-9.97
-6.35
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
36
58
Penalty EPA
-10.99
-5.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.3%
Cover Probability
62.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
-7.1
Net QB Adjustment
+187.0
Home QB Adjustment
-24.5
Away QB Adjustment
-211.5
Market Regression
+24.5
Final Difference
-35.2
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

T. Huntley headshot

T. Huntley

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-211.5
No recent game data available
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-24.5
Value
Ptile
09/26
-18.2
0
10/03
-5.6
16
10/10
-5.7
16
10/17
-4.1
24
10/24
-9.3
5
10/31
2.9
74
11/08
0.6
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Bears Defense
Ravens logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
6
6
Rushing Yards / Game
3
22

EPA

EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
20
20
EPA / Rush
8
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
11
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Bears Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bears logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
24
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
15
2

EPA

EPA / Play
27
23
EPA / Pass
30
30
EPA / Rush
18
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
3
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
23
RZ Efficiency
30
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/16
-14
L
L
U
09/13
-6
L
L
O
09/19
1
W
W
O
09/26
2
W
L
U
10/03
16
W
W
U
10/11
6
W
L
O
10/17
28
W
W
U
10/24
-24
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/11
-12
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
-12
L
L
U
09/12
-20
L
L
O
09/19
3
W
W
U
09/26
-20
L
L
U
10/03
10
W
W
U
10/10
11
W
W
U
10/17
-10
L
L
U
10/24
-35
L
L
U
10/31
-11
L
L
O
11/08
-2
L
W
O