BALRavens
1-0
23
TBD
Paycor Stadium
82°F
3 mph
34
CINBengals
1-0
TBD
Paycor Stadium
82°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
14
3
6
23
Bengals
14
14
0
6
34
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
373
Total Plays
82
70
Yards / Play
5.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.12
Passing Yards
359
--
Comp/Att
32/56(57%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.22
Rushing Yards
66
108
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
24
Passing 1st downs
20
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
44%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.06
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-8.20
--
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
51
92
Penalty EPA
-8.15
-9.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+6
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
30
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
2
29
EPA
EPA / Play
16
29
EPA / Pass
19
29
EPA / Rush
10
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
6
20
Fumbles / Game
28
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
7
26
RZ Efficiency
20
25
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
2
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3
EPA
EPA / Play
18
3
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
19
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
21
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
1
24
Turnover EPA / Game
24
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
3
4th Down Efficiency
18
10
RZ Efficiency
3
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U