BALRavens
8-7
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
43°F
3 mph
34
CINBengals
10-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
43°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
6
0
11
0
17
Bengals
7
10
0
11
28
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
224
392
Total Plays
67
66
Yards / Play
3.3
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.02
Passing Yards
175
--
Comp/Att
30/50(60%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.40
-0.05
Rushing Yards
49
111
Rush Attempts
15
30
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
27%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
3
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.16
-18.94
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-2.66
--
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
56
76
Penalty EPA
-1.52
-5.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+48.4
Home QB Adjustment
+27.3
Away QB Adjustment
-21.1
Market Regression
+40.1
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-21.1
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
28
4
Passing Yards / Game
12
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
31
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
31
8
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
11
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10
EPA
EPA / Play
14
10
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
20
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
4
Interceptions / Game
26
14
Fumbles / Game
24
29
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
3
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
1
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U