BALRavens
5-10
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
35°F
7 mph
24
CINBengals
11-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
35°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
9
0
7
16
Bengals
0
7
14
3
24
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
292
Total Plays
78
57
Yards / Play
4.4
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.01
Passing Yards
282
147
Comp/Att
30/56(54%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.04
Rushing Yards
59
145
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
60%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
12
--
3rd Down Attempts
20
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.70
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-13
Sack EPA
-2.30
-3.32
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
38
72
Penalty EPA
-3.43
-7.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+214
Home nfelo
1,667
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.6
Home QB Adjustment
-103.5
Away QB Adjustment
-82.9
Market Regression
+39.6
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
R. Mallett
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-82.9
R. McCarron
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-103.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
2
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
24
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7
EPA
EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
26
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
23
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
3
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
15
16
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
16
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
16
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
23
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
6
32
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U