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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ bengals week 17, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
5-10
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
35°F
7 mph
24
CINBengals
11-4
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
35°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
9
0
7
16
Bengals
0
7
14
3
24

Spread

BAL logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
341
292
Total Plays
78
57
Yards / Play
4.4
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.01
Passing Yards
282
147
Comp/Att
30/56(54%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.04
Rushing Yards
59
145
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
60%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
12
--
3rd Down Attempts
20
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.70
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-13
Sack EPA
-2.30
-3.32
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
38
72
Penalty EPA
-3.43
-7.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+214
Home nfelo
1,667
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+59.3
Divisional Adj
-26.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.6
Home QB Adjustment
-103.5
Away QB Adjustment
-82.9
Market Regression
+39.6
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

R. Mallett headshot

R. Mallett

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-82.9
Value
Ptile
11/16
2.0
65
11/23
-7.0
11
09/20
-1.6
39
09/27
-1.7
38
10/04
-6.8
8
10/08
-7.3
6
12/27
2.8
71
R. McCarron headshot

R. McCarron

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-103.5
Value
Ptile
12/20
-3.4
26
12/28
0.9
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Ravens logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
24
2
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
24
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7

EPA

EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
26
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
23
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
3
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
15
16
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bengals logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
16
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
16
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12

EPA

EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
23
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
6
32
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
5
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
-5
L
L
O
10/26
-8
L
W
U
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/15
-2
L
L
U
11/22
3
W
P
U
11/30
6
W
W
O
12/06
-2
L
W
U
12/13
-29
L
L
U
12/20
-20
L
L
O
12/27
3
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
13
W
W
O
11/01
6
W
W
U
11/05
21
W
W
U
11/16
-4
L
L
U
11/22
-3
L
W
O
11/29
24
W
W
U
12/06
34
W
W
U
12/13
-13
L
L
O
12/20
10
W
W
U
12/28
-3
L
W
U