BALRavens
10-6
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
38°F
7 mph
27
CINBengals
11-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
38°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
7
6
3
16
Bengals
10
8
3
0
21
Spread
11
P
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
257
Total Plays
75
64
Yards / Play
5.1
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.19
Passing Yards
276
202
Comp/Att
19/44(43%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.44
-0.19
Rushing Yards
110
55
Rush Attempts
27
20
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-16.57
-4.84
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-10
-13
Sack EPA
-10.05
-6.93
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
22
35
Penalty EPA
-4.10
-3.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+286
Home nfelo
1,628
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+49.8
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
+12.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+182.8
Home QB Adjustment
+26.7
Away QB Adjustment
-156.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
A. Brown
Proj. Value
-6.5
Team Elo Adj
-156.2
No recent game data available
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+26.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
5
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
12
7
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
5
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
16
15
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
28
3
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
4
18
EPA / Rush
18
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
13
16
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
4
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Bengals
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U