BALRavens
10-7
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
30°F
4 mph
24
CINBengals
12-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
30°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
7
0
17
Bengals
3
6
8
1
18
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
236
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
5.5
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.05
Passing Yards
209
185
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.11
Rushing Yards
155
51
Rush Attempts
35
18
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-17.38
-2.94
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-26
Sack EPA
-3.42
-5.87
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
36
42
Penalty EPA
-4.99
-6.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+210
Home nfelo
1,620
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+37.8
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+114.2
Home QB Adjustment
+20.6
Away QB Adjustment
-93.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-93.6
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
5
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
12
7
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
5
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
16
15
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
28
3
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
4
18
EPA / Rush
18
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
13
16
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
4
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bengals
9-1
SU
8-1-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U