BALRavens
-
40
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
8 mph
41
BUFBills
-
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
17
14
6
40
Bills
7
6
6
22
41
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
432
497
Total Plays
50
81
Yards / Play
8.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.48
+0.27
Passing Yards
194
389
Comp/Att
14/19(74%)
33/49(67%)
Yards / Pass
10.2
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.29
Rushing Yards
238
108
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
8.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.36
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
29
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
55%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
33%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.28
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-5
Sack EPA
-3.27
-1.41
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
51
38
Penalty EPA
-8.89
-4.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-0
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,663
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.6
Market Regression
-47.3
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+3.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
13
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
9
31
EPA
EPA / Play
3
25
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
3
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
28
21
RZ Efficiency
19
21
Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
2
31
Passing Yards / Game
4
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
27
EPA
EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
5
23
EPA / Rush
1
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
3
Interceptions / Game
2
24
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
32
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
8
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U