nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ bills week 1, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

BAL logo
BALRavens
-
40
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
8 mph
41
BUFBills
-
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
17
14
6
40
Bills
7
6
6
22
41

Spread

BUF logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
432
497
Total Plays
50
81
Yards / Play
8.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.48
+0.27
Passing Yards
194
389
Comp/Att
14/19(74%)
33/49(67%)
Yards / Pass
10.2
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.29
Rushing Yards
238
108
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
8.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.36
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
19
29
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
55%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
33%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.28
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-5
Sack EPA
-3.27
-1.41
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
51
38
Penalty EPA
-8.89
-4.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+0
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.6
Market Regression
-47.3
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
Value
Ptile
11/07
10.8
98
11/17
-1.3
39
11/25
3.7
73
12/01
5.9
83
12/15
13.4
99
12/21
3.3
72
12/25
9.8
96
01/04
5.8
83
01/11
7.2
91
01/19
4.3
77
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
11/10
-1.2
40
11/17
6.5
87
12/01
6.6
88
12/08
18.2
100
12/15
15.3
99
12/22
-1.0
42
12/29
5.4
81
01/12
6.9
89
01/19
3.7
74
01/26
3.0
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Ravens logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
19
1
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29

EPA

EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
25
6
EPA / Rush
1
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
12
Interceptions / Game
11
11
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
7
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
29
19
Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bills logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
5
25
Passing Yards / Game
13
29
Rushing Yards / Game
2
11

EPA

EPA / Play
2
14
EPA / Pass
7
21
EPA / Rush
3
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
11
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
6
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
1
W
L
O
11/17
-2
L
L
U
11/25
7
W
W
O
12/01
-5
L
L
U
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
17
W
W
O
12/25
29
W
W
U
01/04
25
W
W
O
01/11
14
W
W
U
01/19
-2
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
9
W
W
O
12/01
25
W
W
P
12/08
-2
L
L
O
12/15
6
W
W
O
12/22
3
W
L
U
12/29
26
W
W
O
01/05
-7
L
L
O
01/12
24
W
W
U
01/19
2
W
W
O
01/26
-3
L
L
O