BALRavens
-
40
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
8 mph
41
BUFBills
-
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
17
14
6
40
Bills
7
6
6
22
41
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
432
497
Total Plays
50
81
Yards / Play
8.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.48
+0.27
Passing Yards
194
389
Comp/Att
14/19(74%)
33/49(67%)
Yards / Pass
10.2
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.29
Rushing Yards
238
108
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
8.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.36
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
29
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
55%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
33%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.28
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-5
Sack EPA
-3.27
-1.41
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
51
38
Penalty EPA
-8.89
-4.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-0
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,663
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.6
Market Regression
-47.3
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
21
12
Passing Yards / Game
16
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
14
25
EPA / Pass
21
8
EPA / Rush
6
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
18
4th Down Efficiency
26
23
RZ Efficiency
28
12
Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
2
26
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
4
19
EPA / Rush
2
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
8
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
20
20
RZ Efficiency
5
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U