BALRavens
13-5
25
TBD
New Era Field
19°F
4 mph
27
BUFBills
14-4
TBD
New Era Field
19°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
3
9
6
25
Bills
7
14
0
6
27
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
273
Total Plays
59
59
Yards / Play
7.1
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.14
Passing Yards
240
126
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.08
Rushing Yards
176
147
Rush Attempts
30
36
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.29
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
13
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
70%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.37
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-1
Sack EPA
-9.83
-1.07
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
43
--
Penalty EPA
-4.31
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-44
Home nfelo
1,659
Away nfelo
1,739
Home Field
+52.5
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+30.5
Away QB Adjustment
+43.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+43.2
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+30.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
12
Yards / Game
1
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
23
EPA / Rush
1
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
1
17
Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
32
Rushing Yards / Game
9
1
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
3
11
EPA / Rush
3
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
30
Interceptions / Game
2
21
Fumbles / Game
1
29
Turnover EPA / Game
32
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
2
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U