BALRavens
2-1
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
77°F
11 mph
7
DENBroncos
3-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
77°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
17
0
6
23
Broncos
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
406
254
Total Plays
70
59
Yards / Play
5.8
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.29
Passing Yards
304
148
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.44
Rushing Yards
102
106
Rush Attempts
30
17
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
41%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.91
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-12
-30
Sack EPA
-2.74
-7.65
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-4.99
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,618
Home Field
+72.6
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
+15.2
Net QB Adjustment
+17.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.3
Market Regression
-8.2
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
2
Yards / Game
6
9
Passing Yards / Game
6
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
14
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
20
16
EPA / Rush
8
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
28
17
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
5
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
28
4th Down Efficiency
3
4
RZ Efficiency
13
2
Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
19
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
13
2
EPA
EPA / Play
15
23
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
23
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
3
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
3
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U