BALRavens
3-1
9
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
72°F
5 mph
12
CLEBrowns
1-2
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
72°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Ravens
3
0
3
3
0
9
Browns
0
6
3
0
3
12
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
410
416
Total Plays
84
76
Yards / Play
4.9
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.19
Passing Yards
294
304
Comp/Att
29/57(51%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.08
Rushing Yards
116
112
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
32%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
19
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.00
-3.59
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-4
-38
Sack EPA
-2.68
-8.63
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
41
66
Penalty EPA
-3.79
-7.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-78
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+56.7
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
12
30
Passing Yards / Game
18
31
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28
EPA
EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
10
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
28
1
Turnover EPA / Game
15
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
6
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
20
19
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
2
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
13
3
EPA
EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
14
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
14
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
3
4th Down Efficiency
29
10
RZ Efficiency
5
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
1-8-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U