BALRavens
5-2
25
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
39°F
8 mph
15
CLEBrowns
2-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
39°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
14
0
0
11
25
Browns
0
9
3
3
15
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
290
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
4.5
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.16
Passing Yards
147
174
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.36
Rushing Yards
137
116
Rush Attempts
37
27
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.60
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-2
Sack EPA
-1.95
-1.49
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
82
31
Penalty EPA
-6.81
-2.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model64.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-138
Home nfelo
1,405
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.6
Market Regression
-6.3
Final Difference
-101.2
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
19
Yards / Game
11
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
18
EPA
EPA / Play
10
12
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
17
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
12
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
14
4th Down Efficiency
26
27
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
25
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
22
EPA
EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
27
13
Fumbles / Game
3
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
30
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U