BALRavens
4-5
23
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
44°F
20 mph
16
CLEBrowns
2-7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
44°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
7
0
13
23
Browns
3
7
0
0
10
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
187
Total Plays
60
54
Yards / Play
5.8
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.25
Passing Yards
167
81
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
11/26(42%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
3.1
EPA / Pass
-0.51
-0.65
Rushing Yards
184
106
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
10
Passing 1st downs
9
4
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.80
+2.03
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-26
-34
Sack EPA
-6.53
-6.42
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
26
41
Penalty EPA
-4.38
-5.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-201
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+23.0
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-49.6
Home QB Adjustment
-37.5
Away QB Adjustment
+12.1
Market Regression
+23.9
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+3.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
D. Gabriel
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-37.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
5
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
6
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
20
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
8
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
29
7
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
31
26
Passing Yards / Game
25
29
Rushing Yards / Game
26
20
EPA
EPA / Play
32
19
EPA / Pass
32
19
EPA / Rush
18
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
6
10
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
18
20
RZ Efficiency
24
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U