BALRavens
9-4
3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
12 mph
13
CLEBrowns
5-8
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
3
0
0
3
Browns
0
6
7
0
13
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
283
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
5.3
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.10
Passing Yards
126
140
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.57
-0.10
Rushing Yards
198
143
Rush Attempts
28
33
Yards / Rush
7.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.49
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-12
-21
Sack EPA
-3.04
-4.67
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
25
32
Penalty EPA
-3.31
-5.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+22.4
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+155.9
Home QB Adjustment
+31.2
Away QB Adjustment
-124.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-124.7
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
16
12
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
5
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
16
22
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
30
15
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
3
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
14
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
3
EPA
EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
4
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
21
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
20
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U