BALRavens
10-4
20
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
26°F
18 mph
10
CLEBrowns
5-9
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
26°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
13
7
0
20
Browns
7
3
0
0
10
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
258
280
Total Plays
58
56
Yards / Play
4.4
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.13
Passing Yards
97
--
Comp/Att
12/19(63%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.30
Rushing Yards
161
102
Rush Attempts
38
26
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
54%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.54
-16.19
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-2.10
--
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-135
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+20.1
Away QB Adjustment
+15.4
Market Regression
-6.8
Final Difference
-100.6
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
22
22
Passing Yards / Game
15
11
Rushing Yards / Game
16
26
EPA
EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
10
25
EPA / Rush
18
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
16
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
17
17
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
31
RZ Efficiency
22
8
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
30
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3
EPA
EPA / Play
23
6
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
22
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
9
Interceptions / Game
19
7
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
18
RZ Efficiency
27
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U