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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ browns week 16, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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BAL logo
BALRavens
10-4
20
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
26°F
18 mph
10
CLEBrowns
5-9
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
26°F
18 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
13
7
0
20
Browns
7
3
0
0
10

Spread

BAL logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
258
280
Total Plays
58
56
Yards / Play
4.4
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.13
Passing Yards
97
--
Comp/Att
12/19(63%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.30
Rushing Yards
161
102
Rush Attempts
38
26
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
54%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.54
-16.19
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-2.10
--
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-135
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+20.1
Away QB Adjustment
+15.4
Market Regression
-6.7
Final Difference
-100.6
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Value
Ptile
10/10
1.5
57
10/17
5.2
84
10/24
2.2
63
11/07
2.7
67
11/11
2.0
61
11/21
3.4
72
11/28
1.6
58
12/05
-0.9
43
12/13
-1.5
40
12/19
-1.4
41
D. McCoy headshot

D. McCoy

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
Value
Ptile
10/17
-1.5
40
10/24
-5.3
16
11/07
3.5
72
11/14
-0.7
44
11/21
-4.1
23
12/19
2.1
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Ravens logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
22
22
Passing Yards / Game
15
11
Rushing Yards / Game
16
26

EPA

EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
10
25
EPA / Rush
18
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
16
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
17
17
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
31
RZ Efficiency
22
8
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Browns logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
30
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3

EPA

EPA / Play
23
6
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
22
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
9
Interceptions / Game
19
7
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
18
RZ Efficiency
27
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
14
W
W
O
10/17
-3
L
P
U
10/24
3
W
L
O
11/07
16
W
W
U
11/11
-5
L
L
O
11/21
24
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
L
U
12/05
-3
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
O
12/19
6
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-18
L
L
O
10/24
13
W
W
O
11/07
20
W
W
O
11/14
-6
L
L
O
11/21
-4
L
L
O
11/28
1
W
L
O
12/05
3
W
W
U
12/12
-7
L
L
U
12/19
-2
L
L
U