BALRavens
4-3
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
022
TBBuccaneers
3-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
0
14
10
27
Buccaneers
10
0
0
12
22
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
453
349
Total Plays
74
63
Yards / Play
6.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.11
Passing Yards
222
305
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
26/44(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.11
Rushing Yards
231
44
Rush Attempts
33
16
Yards / Rush
7.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
46%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+6.50
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-16
-20
Sack EPA
-4.08
-3.14
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
101
35
Penalty EPA
-7.52
-2.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,592
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+39.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.5
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
15
Yards / Game
16
10
Passing Yards / Game
28
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
15
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
5
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
32
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
18
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
3
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
31
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3
EPA
EPA / Play
23
11
EPA / Pass
11
18
EPA / Rush
32
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
21
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
24
7
Turnover EPA / Game
16
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
4
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U