BALRavens
7-4
30
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
023
LACChargers
7-3
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
14
3
13
30
Chargers
7
6
3
7
23
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
285
Total Plays
61
60
Yards / Play
6.4
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.13
Passing Yards
177
202
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.05
Rushing Yards
212
83
Rush Attempts
37
20
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
-0.75
-5.57
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
102
62
Penalty EPA
-11.62
-6.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
Chargers+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+0
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,630
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+41.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
+22.0
Net QB Adjustment
-31.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+35.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-35.7
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+35.6
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
1
11
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
1
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
4
EPA / Pass
1
4
EPA / Rush
1
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
15
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
4
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
1
2
Chargers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
8
Yards / Game
20
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
32
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
13
19
EPA / Pass
14
11
EPA / Rush
19
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
5
21
Fumbles / Game
3
29
Turnover EPA / Game
29
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
2
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U