BALRavens
2-0
28
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
033
KCChiefs
2-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
6
0
7
15
28
Chiefs
0
23
7
3
33
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
452
503
Total Plays
81
63
Yards / Play
5.6
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.30
Passing Yards
249
363
Comp/Att
22/44(50%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.44
Rushing Yards
203
140
Rush Attempts
34
25
Yards / Rush
6.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.47
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
27
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
15
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
38%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-11
Sack EPA
-3.56
-1.74
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
60
31
Penalty EPA
-9.03
-3.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+66.7
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+25.1
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
-31.0
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+25.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
10
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
23
15
Rushing Yards / Game
1
25
EPA
EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
1
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
28
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
5
17
RZ Efficiency
5
10
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
4
3
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
7
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
26
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
14
6
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
11
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U