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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ chiefs week 3, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
2-0
28
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0
33
KCChiefs
2-0
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
6
0
7
15
28
Chiefs
0
23
7
3
33

Spread

KC logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
52

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
452
503
Total Plays
81
63
Yards / Play
5.6
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.30
Passing Yards
249
363
Comp/Att
22/44(50%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.44
Rushing Yards
203
140
Rush Attempts
34
25
Yards / Rush
6.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.47
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
29
27
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
15
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
38%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-11
Sack EPA
-3.56
-1.74
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
60
31
Penalty EPA
-9.03
-3.25

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,624
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+25.1
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
-21.0
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Value
Ptile
11/18
-1.9
33
11/25
-0.0
46
12/02
-1.3
37
12/09
0.6
51
12/16
0.7
51
12/22
-1.5
36
12/30
4.4
76
01/06
-5.7
14
09/08
10.2
97
09/15
9.4
96
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.1
Value
Ptile
11/19
10.2
96
12/02
9.7
95
12/09
3.4
71
12/13
3.4
72
12/23
5.8
84
12/30
1.0
53
01/12
0.2
48
01/20
1.2
55
09/08
10.6
98
09/15
10.0
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
1
10
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
23
15
Rushing Yards / Game
1
25

EPA

EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
1
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
28
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
5
17
RZ Efficiency
5
10
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Chiefs logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
4
3
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7

EPA

EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
7
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
26
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
14
6
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
11
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
3
W
L
O
11/25
17
W
W
O
12/02
10
W
W
U
12/09
-3
L
W
O
12/16
8
W
L
U
12/22
12
W
W
U
12/30
2
W
L
O
01/06
-6
L
L
U
09/08
49
W
W
O
09/15
6
W
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-3
L
P
O
12/02
7
W
L
O
12/09
3
W
L
O
12/13
-1
L
L
O
12/23
-7
L
L
O
12/30
32
W
W
U
01/12
18
W
W
U
01/20
-6
L
L
O
09/08
14
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
U