BALRavens
2-1
31
TBD
FedExField
65°F
5 mph
17
WASCommanders
1-2
TBD
FedExField
65°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
14
7
3
31
Commanders
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
14
P
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
343
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.07
Passing Yards
206
274
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
32/45(71%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.10
Rushing Yards
144
69
Rush Attempts
32
22
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
45%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.76
-4.46
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-40
Sack EPA
-1.03
-5.39
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
30
20
Penalty EPA
-3.41
-2.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.0%
Model87.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-311
Home nfelo
1,355
Away nfelo
1,649
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.1
Home QB Adjustment
-17.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-26.2
Final Difference
-330.2
Model Spread
+14.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
D. Haskins
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
19
5
Passing Yards / Game
30
6
Rushing Yards / Game
1
15
EPA
EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
1
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
16
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
16
2
RZ Efficiency
17
2
Commanders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
6
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
29
7
EPA / Rush
11
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
15
Interceptions / Game
27
27
Fumbles / Game
17
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
2
4th Down Efficiency
21
10
RZ Efficiency
15
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U