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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ commanders week 4, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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BAL logo
BALRavens
2-1
31
TBD
FedExField
65°F
5 mph
17
WASCommanders
1-2
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
65°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
14
7
3
31
Commanders
0
10
0
7
17

Spread

BAL logo
WAS logo
14
P

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
350
343
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.07
Passing Yards
206
274
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
32/45(71%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.10
Rushing Yards
144
69
Rush Attempts
32
22
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
45%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.76
-4.46
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-40
Sack EPA
-1.03
-5.39
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
30
20
Penalty EPA
-3.41
-2.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.0%
Model87.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-311
Home nfelo
1,355
Away nfelo
1,649
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.1
Home QB Adjustment
-17.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-26.2
Final Difference
-330.2
Model Spread
+14.0

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Value
Ptile
11/17
9.6
96
11/25
10.7
98
12/01
6.2
87
12/08
2.8
71
12/12
11.0
99
12/22
10.7
98
01/11
2.8
71
09/13
8.0
91
09/20
-1.7
31
09/28
-1.9
30
D. Haskins headshot

D. Haskins

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
Value
Ptile
11/03
-3.9
25
11/17
-8.7
7
11/24
-6.3
15
12/01
-8.9
6
12/08
-6.9
13
12/15
5.0
83
12/22
-1.1
46
09/13
-3.4
22
09/20
-4.6
17
09/27
-7.8
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Commanders Defense
Ravens logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
19
5
Passing Yards / Game
30
6
Rushing Yards / Game
1
15

EPA

EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
1
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
16
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
16
2
RZ Efficiency
17
2
Commanders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Commanders logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
6

EPA

EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
29
7
EPA / Rush
11
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
15
Interceptions / Game
27
27
Fumbles / Game
17
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
2
4th Down Efficiency
21
10
RZ Efficiency
15
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
39
W
W
O
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/08
7
W
W
U
12/12
21
W
W
O
12/22
16
W
W
U
12/29
18
W
W
O
01/11
-16
L
L
U
09/13
32
W
W
U
09/20
17
W
W
U
09/28
-14
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/01
8
W
W
O
12/08
-5
L
W
U
12/15
-10
L
L
O
12/22
-6
L
L
O
12/29
-31
L
L
O
09/13
10
W
W
O
09/20
-15
L
L
U
09/27
-14
L
L
O