BALRavens
9-3
28
TBD
FedExField
51°F
7 mph
31
WASCommanders
6-6
TBD
FedExField
51°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Ravens
7
14
0
7
0
28
Commanders
14
0
6
8
3
31
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
425
Total Plays
58
67
Yards / Play
6.2
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.12
Passing Yards
173
244
Comp/Att
16/21(76%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.45
Rushing Yards
186
181
Rush Attempts
35
36
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.41
-5.30
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-9
-24
Sack EPA
-7.14
-3.70
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
56
70
Penalty EPA
-4.39
-5.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.8
Home QB Adjustment
+42.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
+29.3
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+42.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
11
28
Passing Yards / Game
17
32
Rushing Yards / Game
11
9
EPA
EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
17
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
21
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
12
15
Turnover EPA / Game
27
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
31
4th Down Efficiency
26
23
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Commanders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
25
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22
EPA
EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
6
14
EPA / Rush
2
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
3
13
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
5
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U