BALRavens
-
59
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
91°F
8 mph
10
MIADolphins
-
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
91°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
21
21
10
7
59
Dolphins
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
643
200
Total Plays
73
47
Yards / Play
8.8
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.65
-0.24
Passing Yards
378
179
Comp/Att
23/26(88%)
15/32(47%)
Yards / Pass
14.5
5.6
EPA / Pass
+1.46
-0.18
Rushing Yards
265
21
Rush Attempts
46
12
Yards / Rush
5.8
1.8
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
12
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
1
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
64%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
71%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.17
-8.87
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-11
Sack EPA
-0.91
-3.78
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
40
64
Penalty EPA
-4.51
-8.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model70.7%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-118
Home nfelo
1,356
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+57.9
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
-9.2
Market Regression
-2.4
Final Difference
-152.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
2
30
Passing Yards / Game
23
29
Rushing Yards / Game
1
27
EPA
EPA / Play
1
32
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
1
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
1
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
9
32
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
28
RZ Efficiency
5
28
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
3
Yards / Game
27
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7
EPA
EPA / Play
27
7
EPA / Pass
26
3
EPA / Rush
30
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
4
6
Turnover EPA / Game
9
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
14
4th Down Efficiency
17
3
RZ Efficiency
18
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U