BALRavens
2-2
26
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
5 mph
23
MIADolphins
3-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
3
10
10
26
Dolphins
3
10
0
4
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
384
294
Total Plays
74
57
Yards / Play
5.2
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.04
Passing Yards
251
272
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
21/40(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.02
Rushing Yards
133
22
Rush Attempts
40
11
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.64
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
10
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
--
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.68
--
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-18
-35
Sack EPA
-1.82
-7.70
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
64
65
Penalty EPA
-4.60
-6.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.3
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.6
Market Regression
-12.2
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
8
Yards / Game
28
20
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
30
24
EPA
EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
31
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
1
Interceptions / Game
31
11
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
15
4th Down Efficiency
23
21
RZ Efficiency
31
5
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
27
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
10
EPA
EPA / Play
20
10
EPA / Pass
20
13
EPA / Rush
28
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
20
14
Fumbles / Game
9
29
Turnover EPA / Game
21
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
3
4th Down Efficiency
31
23
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U