BALRavens
2-5
28
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
5 mph
6
MIADolphins
2-6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
7
14
0
28
Dolphins
3
3
0
0
6
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
332
Total Plays
56
62
Yards / Play
6.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.25
Passing Yards
188
245
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.07
Rushing Yards
150
87
Rush Attempts
31
20
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-11.27
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-16
Sack EPA
-3.16
-1.68
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
56
--
Penalty EPA
-4.41
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+7.5
Expected Value
+10.7%
Cover Probability
58.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-125
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.7
Home QB Adjustment
-11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-165.1
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
16
28
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29
EPA
EPA / Play
14
27
EPA / Pass
21
30
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
19
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
19
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
26
4th Down Efficiency
26
29
RZ Efficiency
28
5
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
17
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
30
17
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
10
4th Down Efficiency
20
20
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U