nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ dolphins week 10, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

BAL logo
BALRavens
6-2
10
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
4 mph
22
MIADolphins
2-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
0
0
7
10
Dolphins
0
6
0
10
16

Spread

MIA logo
+8.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
304
350
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
4.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.11
Passing Yards
210
290
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.37
-0.02
Rushing Yards
94
60
Rush Attempts
23
22
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
14%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.85
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-28
-24
Sack EPA
-7.29
-6.25
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
20
97
Penalty EPA
-2.89
-11.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market77.4%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-166
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+54.4
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.7
Home QB Adjustment
-21.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.8
Market Regression
-14.2
Final Difference
-204.1
Model Spread
+8.0

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Value
Ptile
01/10
0.9
50
01/16
-6.1
10
09/13
2.4
71
09/19
7.5
92
09/26
-3.8
26
10/03
1.6
65
10/11
16.3
99
10/17
-3.2
29
10/24
0.1
54
11/07
6.0
88
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-21.0
Value
Ptile
11/21
-2.5
35
12/01
-3.4
28
12/08
1.1
60
12/16
-4.3
24
12/22
-2.9
32
12/29
-6.5
14
09/26
1.1
61
10/03
-1.5
42
10/10
-0.7
48
11/07
-7.8
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Ravens logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
17
15
Yards / Game
6
16
Passing Yards / Game
6
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13

EPA

EPA / Play
16
11
EPA / Pass
20
8
EPA / Rush
8
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
5
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
13
7
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
22
18
Yards / Game
25
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
29
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2

EPA

EPA / Play
22
23
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
29
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
14
27
Fumbles / Game
25
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
3
4th Down Efficiency
15
23
RZ Efficiency
15
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
7
W
W
U
01/16
-14
L
L
U
09/13
-6
L
L
O
09/19
1
W
W
O
09/26
2
W
L
U
10/03
16
W
W
U
10/11
6
W
L
O
10/17
28
W
W
U
10/24
-24
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-30
L
L
O
09/12
1
W
W
U
09/19
-35
L
L
U
09/26
-3
L
W
O
10/03
-10
L
L
O
10/10
-28
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
U
10/24
-2
L
L
O
10/31
-15
L
P
U
11/07
8
W
W
U