BALRavens
6-2
10
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
4 mph
22
MIADolphins
2-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
0
0
7
10
Dolphins
0
6
0
10
16
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
350
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
4.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.11
Passing Yards
210
290
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.37
-0.02
Rushing Yards
94
60
Rush Attempts
23
22
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
14%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.85
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-28
-24
Sack EPA
-7.29
-6.25
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
20
97
Penalty EPA
-2.89
-11.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-164
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+54.5
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.7
Home QB Adjustment
-21.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.8
Market Regression
-13.7
Final Difference
-203.7
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-21.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
15
Yards / Game
6
16
Passing Yards / Game
6
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13
EPA
EPA / Play
16
11
EPA / Pass
20
8
EPA / Rush
8
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
5
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
13
7
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
18
Yards / Game
25
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
29
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2
EPA
EPA / Play
22
23
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
29
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
14
27
Fumbles / Game
25
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
3
4th Down Efficiency
15
23
RZ Efficiency
15
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U