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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ falcons week 10, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BAL logo
BALRavens
6-2
21
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
26
ATLFalcons
6-2
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
0
7
14
21
Falcons
0
10
3
13
26

Spread

ATL logo
-1

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
320
362
Total Plays
57
76
Yards / Play
5.6
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.18
Passing Yards
204
302
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
32/51(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.20
Rushing Yards
116
60
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
5.5
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
55%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
12
3rd Down Attempts
11
20
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.82
+4.11
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-14
Sack EPA
-1.67
-4.24
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-5.05
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+16.5
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
+15.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Value
Ptile
01/10
-7.3
9
01/16
-5.3
18
09/13
-3.3
27
09/19
-10.6
2
09/26
7.5
92
10/03
2.0
61
10/10
1.5
57
10/17
5.2
84
10/24
2.2
63
11/07
2.7
67
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Value
Ptile
12/27
3.2
71
01/03
0.6
54
09/12
-1.4
40
09/19
5.1
83
09/26
3.7
74
10/03
-2.5
31
10/10
-1.7
39
10/17
-0.8
44
10/24
8.6
94
11/07
4.4
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Falcons Defense
Ravens logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
22
19
Passing Yards / Game
15
29
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10

EPA

EPA / Play
10
10
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
18
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
28
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
23
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
22
21
Falcons Offense vs Ravens Defense
Falcons logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
6
3
Yards / Game
19
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
3

EPA

EPA / Play
7
6
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
16
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
9
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
15
7
Turnover EPA / Game
30
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
18
RZ Efficiency
6
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
19
W
W
O
01/16
-17
L
L
U
09/13
1
W
W
U
09/19
-5
L
L
U
09/26
7
W
L
O
10/03
3
W
W
U
10/10
14
W
W
O
10/17
-3
L
P
U
10/24
3
W
L
O
11/07
16
W
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
28
W
W
U
01/03
10
W
W
U
09/12
-6
L
L
U
09/19
34
W
W
O
09/26
3
W
W
O
10/03
2
W
L
U
10/10
10
W
W
U
10/17
-14
L
L
O
10/24
7
W
W
O
11/07
6
W
L
O