BALRavens
6-2
21
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
026
ATLFalcons
6-2
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
0
7
14
21
Falcons
0
10
3
13
26
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
362
Total Plays
57
76
Yards / Play
5.6
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.18
Passing Yards
204
302
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
32/51(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.20
Rushing Yards
116
60
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
5.5
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
55%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
12
3rd Down Attempts
11
20
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.82
+4.11
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-14
Sack EPA
-1.67
-4.24
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-5.05
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+5
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+16.5
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
+15.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
22
19
Passing Yards / Game
15
29
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10
EPA
EPA / Play
10
10
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
18
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
28
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
23
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
22
21
Falcons Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
3
Yards / Game
19
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
6
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
16
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
9
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
15
7
Turnover EPA / Game
30
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
18
RZ Efficiency
6
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U