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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ giants week 6, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
3-2
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
6 mph
27
NYGGiants
2-3
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
10
0
3
10
23
Giants
0
7
10
10
27

Spread

NYG logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
391
435
Total Plays
76
64
Yards / Play
5.1
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.09
Passing Yards
293
397
Comp/Att
26/48(54%)
32/46(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.22
Rushing Yards
98
38
Rush Attempts
26
17
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
--
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
28%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.60
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-6
Sack EPA
-2.99
-1.37
Penalties
15
7
Penalty Yards
111
119
Penalty EPA
-8.69
-9.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+78.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Value
Ptile
10/18
2.1
65
10/26
-1.5
40
11/01
3.0
73
11/15
5.7
85
11/22
-1.2
42
09/11
-1.5
36
09/18
-0.2
46
09/25
-2.2
33
10/02
3.1
73
10/09
-1.3
38
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
Value
Ptile
12/06
-2.8
30
12/14
11.7
99
12/20
6.6
89
12/27
-10.1
1
01/03
0.8
55
09/11
0.7
55
09/18
2.7
70
09/25
-0.8
42
10/03
-1.2
39
10/09
-4.0
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Giants Defense
Ravens logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
20
4
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
14
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
2

EPA

EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
15
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
3
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
19
1
Giants Offense vs Ravens Defense
Giants logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
27
9
Yards / Game
23
7
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5

EPA

EPA / Play
28
6
EPA / Pass
24
11
EPA / Rush
29
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
19
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
23
8
Turnover EPA / Game
14
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
19
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-2
L
W
U
12/13
-29
L
L
U
12/20
-20
L
L
O
12/27
3
W
W
U
01/03
-8
L
W
U
09/11
6
W
W
U
09/18
5
W
W
O
09/25
2
W
W
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-6
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-3
L
L
U
12/14
7
W
W
O
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
-32
L
L
O
01/03
-5
L
L
O
09/11
1
W
W
U
09/18
3
W
L
U
09/25
-2
L
L
O
10/03
-14
L
L
U
10/09
-7
L
P
U