BALRavens
3-2
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
6 mph
27
NYGGiants
2-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
10
0
3
10
23
Giants
0
7
10
10
27
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
435
Total Plays
76
64
Yards / Play
5.1
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.09
Passing Yards
293
397
Comp/Att
26/48(54%)
32/46(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.22
Rushing Yards
98
38
Rush Attempts
26
17
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
--
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
28%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.60
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-6
Sack EPA
-2.99
-1.37
Penalties
15
7
Penalty Yards
111
119
Penalty EPA
-8.69
-9.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
4
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
14
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
2
EPA
EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
15
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
3
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
19
1
Giants Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
9
Yards / Game
23
7
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5
EPA
EPA / Play
28
6
EPA / Pass
24
11
EPA / Rush
29
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
19
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
23
8
Turnover EPA / Game
14
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
19
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U