BALRavens
7-3
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
77°F
19 mph
28
JAXJaguars
3-7
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
77°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
6
3
3
15
27
Jaguars
0
10
0
18
28
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
417
334
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
6.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.07
Passing Yards
255
296
Comp/Att
16/33(48%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.39
Rushing Yards
162
38
Rush Attempts
35
20
Yards / Rush
4.6
1.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.59
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
13
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
57%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-7.95
-4.30
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-1
-27
Sack EPA
-1.34
-8.07
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
20
19
Penalty EPA
-2.64
-2.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
16
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
12
EPA
EPA / Play
12
17
EPA / Pass
21
20
EPA / Rush
5
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
18
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
29
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
30
25
Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
14
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
11
EPA / Pass
7
18
EPA / Rush
14
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
21
Interceptions / Game
13
16
Fumbles / Game
30
7
Turnover EPA / Game
7
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
4
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
17
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U