BALRavens
10-3
23
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
58°F
13 mph
7
JAXJaguars
8-5
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
58°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
7
0
13
23
Jaguars
0
0
7
0
7
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
333
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
5.7
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.30
Passing Yards
145
258
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.28
Rushing Yards
251
75
Rush Attempts
42
17
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
14
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.80
-9.34
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-6
Sack EPA
-5.89
-4.59
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
54
47
Penalty EPA
-7.25
-5.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+45.3
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.0
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
6
19
Passing Yards / Game
20
20
Rushing Yards / Game
1
9
EPA
EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
4
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
30
13
Turnover EPA / Game
18
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
7
16
Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
1
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
22
15
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
28
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
13
Interceptions / Game
19
10
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U