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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ jaguars week 15, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
10-3
23
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
58°F
13 mph
7
JAXJaguars
8-5
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
58°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
7
0
13
23
Jaguars
0
0
7
0
7

Spread

BAL logo
-4

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
396
333
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
5.7
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.30
Passing Yards
145
258
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.28
Rushing Yards
251
75
Rush Attempts
42
17
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
14
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.80
-9.34
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-6
Sack EPA
-5.89
-4.59
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
54
47
Penalty EPA
-7.25
-5.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-52
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,630
Home Field
+45.2
Base HFA
+45.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+15.9
Market Regression
-12.6
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Value
Ptile
10/01
6.7
90
10/08
-2.7
31
10/15
2.5
67
10/22
13.8
100
10/29
-4.5
22
11/05
3.6
73
11/12
-2.4
33
11/16
4.1
76
11/26
-1.7
38
12/10
5.9
86
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Value
Ptile
10/01
2.3
65
10/08
2.7
68
10/15
-2.6
32
10/19
6.6
89
10/29
1.8
61
11/12
-9.8
3
11/19
9.7
97
11/26
4.6
79
12/04
5.8
85
12/10
-3.4
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Ravens logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
6
19
Passing Yards / Game
20
20
Rushing Yards / Game
1
9

EPA

EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
4
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
30
13
Turnover EPA / Game
18
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
7
16
Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
15
1
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
22
15
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12

EPA

EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
28
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
13
Interceptions / Game
19
10
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
21
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
25
W
W
U
10/08
-7
L
L
U
10/15
8
W
W
U
10/22
32
W
W
O
10/29
7
W
L
O
11/05
34
W
W
U
11/12
-2
L
L
O
11/16
14
W
W
O
11/26
10
W
W
U
12/10
6
W
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
16
W
W
U
10/08
5
W
W
U
10/15
17
W
W
O
10/19
7
W
W
O
10/29
10
W
W
U
11/12
-31
L
L
U
11/19
20
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
W
U
12/04
-3
L
L
O
12/10
-4
L
L
O