BALRavens
7-6
18
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
016
DETLions
7-6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
9
3
6
18
Lions
7
0
3
6
16
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
349
Total Plays
60
64
Yards / Play
5.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.07
Passing Yards
215
230
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.12
Rushing Yards
90
119
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.82
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-5
Sack EPA
-1.74
-1.59
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
60
89
Penalty EPA
-4.57
-8.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+71
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.7
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
-17.4
Market Regression
+5.2
Final Difference
112.9
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
14
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
12
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
6
EPA
EPA / Play
23
12
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
31
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
31
16
Fumbles / Game
9
27
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
30
RZ Efficiency
31
1
Lions Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
5
12
Passing Yards / Game
16
4
Rushing Yards / Game
17
10
EPA
EPA / Play
19
10
EPA / Pass
12
13
EPA / Rush
25
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
20
14
Fumbles / Game
31
29
Turnover EPA / Game
2
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
4
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U