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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ panthers week 11, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BAL logo
BALRavens
6-3
37
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
65°F
6 mph
13
CARPanthers
1-8
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
65°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
10
7
3
5
25
Panthers
0
3
3
7
13

Spread

BAL logo
-13.5

Total

OVER
37

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
378
270
Total Plays
67
53
Yards / Play
5.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.39
Passing Yards
278
150
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
13/28(46%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.66
Rushing Yards
100
120
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
22
9
Passing 1st downs
13
3
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
18%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
2
1
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.77
-13.82
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-23
Sack EPA
-5.06
-3.36
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
20
54
Penalty EPA
-2.14
-5.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model81.5%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+13.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.4%
Cover Probability
57.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-207
Home nfelo
1,338
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.0
Market Regression
-23.1
Final Difference
-257.8
Model Spread
+10.5

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
Value
Ptile
01/16
-5.3
18
09/13
-3.3
27
09/19
-10.6
2
09/26
7.5
92
10/03
2.0
61
10/10
1.5
57
10/17
5.2
84
10/24
2.2
63
11/07
2.7
67
11/11
2.0
61
B. St. Pierre headshot

B. St. Pierre

Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Panthers Defense
Ravens logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
25
Yards / Game
22
17
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
23

EPA

EPA / Play
10
17
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
18
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
2
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
23
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Panthers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Panthers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
32
3
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
30
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
3

EPA

EPA / Play
32
6
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
32
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
9
Interceptions / Game
27
7
Fumbles / Game
30
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
18
18
RZ Efficiency
32
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/16
-17
L
L
U
09/13
1
W
W
U
09/19
-5
L
L
U
09/26
7
W
L
O
10/03
3
W
W
U
10/10
14
W
W
O
10/17
-3
L
P
U
10/24
3
W
L
O
11/07
16
W
W
U
11/11
-5
L
L
O
CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
13
W
W
U
09/12
-13
L
L
O
09/19
-13
L
L
U
09/26
-13
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
U
10/10
-17
L
L
U
10/24
3
W
W
O
10/31
-10
L
L
U
11/07
-31
L
L
U
11/14
-15
L
L
O