BALRavens
1-1
37
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
026
NEPatriots
1-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
7
17
6
37
Patriots
0
13
7
6
26
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
394
447
Total Plays
59
64
Yards / Play
6.7
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.05
Passing Yards
206
302
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.13
Rushing Yards
188
145
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
7.2
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.43
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
45%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
5
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.50
-11.58
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-12
-19
Sack EPA
-4.09
-4.90
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
--
16
Penalty EPA
--
-2.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model55.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+51.0
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.0
Away QB Adjustment
+18.3
Market Regression
-6.1
Final Difference
-38.8
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.3
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
28
27
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
12
2
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
5
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
25
2
RZ Efficiency
30
21
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
24
3
EPA
EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
24
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
21
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
29
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
32
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U