BALRavens
13-4
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
29°F
6 mph
23
NEPatriots
14-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
29°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
10
0
20
Patriots
3
10
3
7
23
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
330
Total Plays
70
68
Yards / Play
5.7
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.03
Passing Yards
282
234
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.02
Rushing Yards
116
96
Rush Attempts
31
31
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
53%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
25%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.22
-12.12
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-24
-5
Sack EPA
-4.54
-1.08
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
33
--
Penalty EPA
-4.18
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+195
Home nfelo
1,701
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.4
Home QB Adjustment
+27.3
Away QB Adjustment
-1.1
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
11
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
12
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
27
EPA / Pass
12
27
EPA / Rush
18
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
5
4
Fumbles / Game
23
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
2
3
Passing Yards / Game
2
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
3
EPA
EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
4
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
11
12
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
2
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U