BALRavens
5-3
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
013
NOSaints
3-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
7
3
10
27
Saints
0
3
3
7
13
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
243
Total Plays
65
49
Yards / Play
4.9
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.21
Passing Yards
131
195
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.13
Rushing Yards
188
48
Rush Attempts
40
15
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
13
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
14
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
60%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.41
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-2
-28
Sack EPA
-2.54
-7.52
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
31
40
Penalty EPA
-3.57
-5.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+59.8
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-32.8
Home QB Adjustment
-21.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.4
Market Regression
-9.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-21.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
9
Yards / Game
16
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
24
EPA
EPA / Play
12
9
EPA / Pass
21
6
EPA / Rush
5
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
18
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
7
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Saints Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
3
Yards / Game
18
6
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
19
3
EPA
EPA / Play
24
11
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
29
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
21
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
28
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U