BALRavens
4-2
30
TBD
Lumen Field
50°F
8 mph
16
SEASeahawks
5-1
TBD
Lumen Field
50°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
4
7
4
18
Seahawks
0
13
0
3
16
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
347
Total Plays
56
68
Yards / Play
6.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.21
Passing Yards
141
241
Comp/Att
9/20(45%)
20/41(49%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.35
Rushing Yards
199
106
Rush Attempts
35
26
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
5
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
25%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-17.56
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
--
Sack EPA
-1.10
-0.88
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
75
--
Penalty EPA
-7.43
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+91.3
Base HFA
+53.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.7
Time Adj
+19.1
Net QB Adjustment
+9.0
Home QB Adjustment
+28.8
Away QB Adjustment
+19.7
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+28.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
19
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22
EPA
EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
18
EPA / Rush
1
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
10
9
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
30
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
18
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
5
22
Seahawks Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
6
3
Passing Yards / Game
10
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
7
EPA
EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
7
3
EPA / Rush
19
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
31
6
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
14
4th Down Efficiency
10
3
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U