BALRavens
0-3
23
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
63°F
8 mph
20
PITSteelers
2-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
63°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Ravens
7
0
7
6
3
23
Steelers
3
10
7
0
0
20
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
263
Total Plays
78
63
Yards / Play
4.6
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.33
Passing Yards
165
96
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
3.7
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.61
Rushing Yards
191
167
Rush Attempts
39
33
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
35%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.27
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-21
-28
Sack EPA
-9.88
-8.09
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
30
20
Penalty EPA
-4.21
-3.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-111.5
Home QB Adjustment
-100.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.4
Market Regression
-57.6
Final Difference
-57.6
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-100.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5
EPA
EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
26
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
31
8
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
15
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
24
6
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
12
EPA
EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
7
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
30
Interceptions / Game
29
32
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U