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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ steelers week 4, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BAL logo
BALRavens
0-3
23
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
63°F
8 mph
20
PITSteelers
2-1
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
63°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Ravens
7
0
7
6
3
23
Steelers
3
10
7
0
0
20

Spread

BAL logo
PIT logo
3
P

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
356
263
Total Plays
78
63
Yards / Play
4.6
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.33
Passing Yards
165
96
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
3.7
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.61
Rushing Yards
191
167
Rush Attempts
39
33
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
35%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.27
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-21
-28
Sack EPA
-9.88
-8.09
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
30
20
Penalty EPA
-4.21
-3.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-15
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-111.5
Home QB Adjustment
-100.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.4
Market Regression
-57.4
Final Difference
-57.4
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Value
Ptile
11/30
4.8
81
12/07
6.9
89
12/14
2.2
67
12/21
-9.2
5
12/28
5.0
82
01/03
1.7
63
01/10
4.8
81
09/13
-9.3
2
09/20
6.8
90
09/27
6.1
87
M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-100.1
Value
Ptile
12/30
-2.4
34
09/09
4.6
82
09/15
11.1
97
09/19
-3.8
25
09/29
-0.7
46
10/06
0.0
49
10/27
-8.3
6
11/02
1.2
59
11/09
-2.3
33
11/24
-11.9
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5

EPA

EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
26
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
31
8
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
15
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
24
6
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
12

EPA

EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
7
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
30
Interceptions / Game
29
32
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
13
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-1
L
L
O
12/07
15
W
W
U
12/14
8
W
L
U
12/21
-12
L
L
U
12/28
10
W
L
U
01/03
13
W
W
U
01/10
-4
L
W
O
09/13
-6
L
L
U
09/20
-4
L
L
O
09/27
-4
L
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
3
W
L
O
11/30
-3
L
L
O
12/07
21
W
W
O
12/14
7
W
W
U
12/21
8
W
W
U
12/28
10
W
W
U
01/03
-13
L
L
U
09/10
-7
L
W
U
09/20
25
W
W
O
09/27
6
W
W
U