BALRavens
2-2
26
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
7 mph
23
PITSteelers
1-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Ravens
10
7
0
6
3
26
Steelers
7
6
7
3
0
23
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
277
269
Total Plays
73
51
Yards / Play
3.8
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.15
Passing Yards
139
192
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.20
Rushing Yards
138
77
Rush Attempts
40
19
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.29
-10.07
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-22
-11
Sack EPA
-4.97
-1.47
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
92
76
Penalty EPA
-12.77
-9.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-102
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+30.2
Base HFA
+55.0
Divisional Adj
-24.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-137.9
Home QB Adjustment
-119.1
Away QB Adjustment
+18.8
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
M. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-119.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
5
Yards / Game
2
5
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
2
EPA / Pass
1
4
EPA / Rush
1
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
30
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
6
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
5
3
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
3
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
30
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
7
EPA
EPA / Play
31
7
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
32
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
14
4th Down Efficiency
32
3
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U