BALRavens
3-1
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
53°F
13 mph
17
PITSteelers
2-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
53°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
3
0
0
10
Steelers
0
3
0
12
15
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
289
Total Plays
67
66
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.07
Passing Yards
210
202
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.47
+0.09
Rushing Yards
125
87
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-8.19
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-26
-22
Sack EPA
-10.43
-6.57
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-0.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-65
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-40.0
Home QB Adjustment
-18.4
Away QB Adjustment
+21.6
Market Regression
-73.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21
EPA
EPA / Play
6
10
EPA / Pass
9
10
EPA / Rush
4
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
30
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
15
Rushing Yards / Game
11
12
EPA
EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
20
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
9
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
25
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U