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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ steelers week 5, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BAL logo
BALRavens
3-1
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
53°F
13 mph
17
PITSteelers
2-2
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
53°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
3
0
0
10
Steelers
0
3
0
12
15

Spread

PIT logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
335
289
Total Plays
67
66
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.07
Passing Yards
210
202
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.47
+0.09
Rushing Yards
125
87
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-8.19
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-26
-22
Sack EPA
-10.43
-6.57
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-0.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-66
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,575
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-40.0
Home QB Adjustment
-18.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.7
Market Regression
-73.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
Value
Ptile
10/23
-3.0
28
10/27
4.5
83
11/07
0.5
55
11/20
-1.3
44
11/27
2.9
75
12/04
-6.4
12
09/10
-3.7
26
09/17
7.9
93
09/24
6.1
87
10/01
6.7
90
K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
Value
Ptile
11/28
-2.0
38
12/04
-1.6
42
12/11
-7.0
9
12/24
-0.2
50
01/01
-3.4
26
01/08
-1.7
40
09/10
-5.4
17
09/18
-4.3
23
09/24
0.7
54
10/01
-7.1
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21

EPA

EPA / Play
6
10
EPA / Pass
9
10
EPA / Rush
4
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
30
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
15
Rushing Yards / Game
11
12

EPA

EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
20
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
9
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
25
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
2
W
W
U
12/17
-10
L
L
U
12/24
8
W
W
U
01/01
-3
L
L
U
01/08
-11
L
P
O
01/15
-7
L
W
O
09/10
16
W
W
U
09/17
3
W
W
O
09/24
-3
L
L
U
10/01
25
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
3
W
W
U
12/11
-2
L
L
U
12/18
8
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
3
W
W
U
01/08
14
W
W
O
09/10
-23
L
L
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/24
5
W
W
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U