BALRavens
5-2
23
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
50°F
2 mph
20
PITSteelers
6-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
50°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
6
7
7
23
Steelers
0
6
0
14
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
392
Total Plays
77
58
Yards / Play
4.6
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.12
Passing Yards
289
322
Comp/Att
28/47(60%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.22
Rushing Yards
67
70
Rush Attempts
27
20
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.31
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
67%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
14
7
3rd Down Attempts
21
12
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.18
-5.77
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-11
-8
Sack EPA
-5.73
-1.31
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
20
69
Penalty EPA
-0.97
-6.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,619
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.9
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8
EPA
EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
18
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
8
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
17
15
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
11
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
4
Rushing Yards / Game
13
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
7
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
16
Interceptions / Game
18
12
Fumbles / Game
26
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
20
RZ Efficiency
15
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U