BALRavens
7-3
16
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
52°F
5 mph
18
PITSteelers
7-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
52°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
7
3
6
16
Steelers
3
6
6
3
18
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
329
303
Total Plays
55
74
Yards / Play
6.0
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.13
Passing Yards
205
181
Comp/Att
16/34(47%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.32
Rushing Yards
124
122
Rush Attempts
19
34
Yards / Rush
6.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.69
-4.96
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-2
-24
Sack EPA
-1.51
-6.68
Penalties
12
7
Penalty Yards
80
45
Penalty EPA
-9.52
-5.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-93
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+22.8
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
-18.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.8
Away QB Adjustment
+45.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+45.7
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
7
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
8
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
1
13
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
8
Yards / Game
23
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
19
11
EPA / Rush
28
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
3
21
Fumbles / Game
31
29
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-1-1
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U