BALRavens
8-3
19
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
50°F
7 mph
20
PITSteelers
5-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
50°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
7
3
9
19
Steelers
0
3
0
17
20
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
323
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
4.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.10
Passing Yards
219
238
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.29
Rushing Yards
107
85
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.89
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-34
--
Sack EPA
-8.34
-0.65
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
55
81
Penalty EPA
-4.55
-9.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,610
Home Field
+34.5
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.7
Home QB Adjustment
-15.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
22
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
14
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32
EPA
EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
8
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
26
30
EPA / Rush
19
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
3
Interceptions / Game
6
27
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U