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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ steelers week 13, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
8-3
19
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
50°F
7 mph
20
PITSteelers
5-5
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
50°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
7
3
9
19
Steelers
0
3
0
17
20

Spread

PIT logo
+4

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
326
323
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
4.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.10
Passing Yards
219
238
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.29
Rushing Yards
107
85
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.89
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-34
--
Sack EPA
-8.34
-0.65
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
55
81
Penalty EPA
-4.55
-9.17

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-99
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+34.5
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.7
Home QB Adjustment
-15.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
09/13
2.4
71
09/19
7.5
92
09/26
-3.8
26
10/03
1.6
65
10/11
16.3
99
10/17
-3.2
29
10/24
0.1
54
11/07
6.0
88
11/11
-4.1
24
11/28
-7.3
10
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.2
Value
Ptile
09/12
-3.1
30
09/19
-1.0
45
09/26
-3.7
26
10/03
-2.0
38
10/10
2.1
69
10/17
1.3
62
10/31
-0.4
49
11/08
-1.7
40
11/21
2.9
75
11/28
-6.3
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
22
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
14
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32

EPA

EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
8
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2

EPA

EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
26
30
EPA / Rush
19
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
3
Interceptions / Game
6
27
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
21
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
1
W
W
O
09/26
2
W
L
U
10/03
16
W
W
U
10/11
6
W
L
O
10/17
28
W
W
U
10/24
-24
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/11
-12
L
L
U
11/21
3
W
L
U
11/28
6
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-9
L
L
U
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
8
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
L
P
10/31
5
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/14
0
T
L
U
11/21
-4
L
W
O
11/28
-31
L
L
O