BALRavens
7-5
38
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
33°F
12 mph
39
PITSteelers
10-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
33°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
14
17
7
38
Steelers
7
13
0
19
39
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
545
Total Plays
62
86
Yards / Play
6.7
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.39
+0.26
Passing Yards
261
486
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
44/66(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.25
Rushing Yards
152
59
Rush Attempts
26
17
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.41
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
31
Passing 1st downs
13
23
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
40%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
4
12
3rd Down Attempts
10
18
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.43
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-20
Sack EPA
-0.22
-2.87
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
35
101
Penalty EPA
-4.85
-8.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,621
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+30.4
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
-25.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.2
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-10.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
11
Yards / Game
27
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
13
Rushing Yards / Game
10
13
EPA
EPA / Play
14
17
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
14
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
9
RZ Efficiency
9
31
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
5
Yards / Game
3
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16
EPA
EPA / Play
5
2
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
19
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
24
1
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
8
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
18
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U